"Fragile things break under stress. Robust things survive it. Antifragile things get stronger. Most of what passes for intelligence is optimized for the average, which means it is catastrophically fragile to the extremes. The third body — the tail event, the black swan — is always the one the model excluded."
Former options trader turned epistemologist whose Incerto series dismantles the foundations of risk modeling, decision theory, and expert prediction. He argues that the dominant two-body models of cause and effect — linear, thin-tailed, Gaussian — systematically exclude the third body: the fat-tailed, non-linear, emergent event that actually drives history.